On Climate Management
Activists like Vice President Al Gore are encouraging a massive shift in human behavior to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and reverse the trend in global mean surface temperature in order to rescue humans and some of our favorite species from the unsavory side effects of further-increasing temperatures. In other words, what was an inadvertent effect on the global climate would become an intentional attempt at global climate management. I am left with the following question: how can we know when to stop?
The question can be phrased in other ways. For instance, what is the optimal global mean surface temperature, and how do we decide that temperature? Also, what are the optimal atmospheric concentrations of various greenhouse gasses? There are an enormous number of variables and interests which must be considered in such a determination. But it seems to me that such determinations must be made if we are to begin managing the global climate.
Allow me to present a hypothetical: Say that humans are somehow able to drastically limit emissions of greenhouse gasses, lower atmospheric concentrations thereof, and facilitate a drop in global mean surface temperature. Now, imagine that the downward trend in temperature continues past where we anticipated. The planet might enter in to a period of cooling which would be just as harmful to humans and our favorite species as global warming, just in different ways. What should be done then?
